A series of data on the use of Facebook released since last week has provoked a lively debate about the possible loss of the social network users in more developed markets like the United States and Great Britain ..
Experts consulted by the BBC Brazil, however, disagree about the reality of the site and many see the potential fluctuations in network usage as a symptom of the strong penetration of Facebook in more developed markets, where it reaches almost 50% of the entire population.
The data released last week by consultancy Inside Facebook Gold (IFG), which is dedicated to monitor the use of social networking, indicated a possible loss of 5.8 million users in the United States and 100,000 in Britain in May despite an overall increase of 11.8 million, thanks to growth in emerging countries like Brazil, India, Mexico and Indonesia.
According to IFG, Facebook has a total of 687 million users worldwide, with 149 million albums in the United States, a country with a population of 313 million. In Brazil, Facebook users had reached 19 million, just under 10% of the 200 million people.
Several analysts and media outlets around the world rushed to investigate the reason for the possible loss of users, with explanations ranging from saturation, privacy concerns and competition from other sites.
But data released on days other consulting firms specializing in measuring Internet traffic - including comScore, Nielsen, Compete and Quantcast - showed growth of Facebook users in the U.S. in May, contradicting the numbers of IFG.
Reliable methodology
For the analyst Adrian Drury, the international media consultancy Ovum, there is no reliable methodology to assess accurately the numbers of Facebook. According to him, only the site administrators themselves have accurate data, which are not disclosed.
"I was amazed at how quickly the press has not rushed to provide technical and end the decline of Facebook based on just one month of data from a single source," he says.
Drury also comments, like other analysts, who, with the proportion of Facebook users reaching 50% of the population in the United States and Britain, further gains become more difficult and increases the chance of fluctuation in numbers.
"Once that Facebook reached a penetration of 50% in some markets like the United States, this means that they reached the top of the adoption curve, from which there is still potential for growth, but a slower speed," says social media analyst Steven Van Belleghem, the Belgian InSites Consulting.
"Like any new technology, Facebook is going through the traditional adoption curve (with a rapid growth until it reaches a certain critical mass, from which the continuity of the increase is reduced inversely to the growth of total penetration - the higher the penetration Overall, the harder it is to gain new users), "he says.
For the Australian blogger Jeff Bullas, a specialist in social media, "with conflicting figures as reliable sources, it is difficult to know where the truth lies." "We may have to wait for data coming months, but it is possible that the United States and other English-speaking countries are near the saturation point," he says.
Downward trend
The Indian Bhupendra Khamal, executive director of the consulting InRev Systems, has a different view and believes that Facebook may actually be starting a downward trend. "Cool things that grow fast also can fall fast. Probably the growth of Facebook has started to stop in more mature markets," he says.
He said this may be due to "market changes, security concerns, frequent changes in the site and the lack of spam control."
Still, he observes that "India and other emerging nations are growing rapidly in number of Facebook users." "The biggest reason for this seems to be a lack of alternatives. Many of my friends feel that because they use Facebook and other social networks Twiter, Foursquare and MySpace did not respond to the needs of users as Facebook has reacted," he says.
The analyst Paul Harrison, director of the British company Carve Consultation, says he sees signs of a possible wave of landing Facebook by opinion makers. "This is perhaps one of the very success of the site. Everyone is connected - the average age of Facebook users is 38 years. But young people do not want to live in an environment where public are also their parents," he says.
"According to reports I have heard, is the cool kids who is leaving Facebook. This is dangerous for the site, because they are opinion makers, the trendsetters," he says.
Lead
Analysts polled by BBC Brazil also disagree about whether Facebook or losing ground even among the leading social networks to new sites.
Among the emerging networks, Paul Harrison points out sites such as Path, which tries to be a network restricted to people closer together, with a limit of 50 friends connected to each user.
Another site which he can emerge as a major force in the near future is Sassma, which is sold with the promise of not having "boring, puritanical, leaders, brands and Farmville absolutely nothing (in reference to the popular application on Facebook) ".
In the radar is also Badoo Harrison, who claims to be the fastest growing social network today. A counter on the home page of the site indicates almost 120 million registered users.
But other analysts argue that there is today no alternative social network that presents a real threat to the leadership of Facebook among the sites of this type. "As long as they do not treat your users badly, I see a possible way to beat the Facebook," says Steven Van Belleghem.
"Some people question whether sites like Twitter can take the place of Facebook, but I do not think it possible. If you look at the stats Twitter, you can even think that it will remain only a niche of people," he says.
For him, Twitter users "can be influential, but they are still part of a small niche." "There is a great paradox in the numbers of Twitter: Twitter's knowledge is enormous, but the use remains very small," he explains.
Adrian Drury, which consolidates the position Facebook as the most popular social network of the Internet is its relationship to other sites and devices that lead the user to interact with Facebook without directly accessing the site.
He finds it difficult to imagine that any other social networking child has the ability to survive as a business before the grandeur of Facebook.
A report released Monday by research firm eMarketer indicates that Facebook has taken the position Yahoo as the biggest online advertising revenue in the U.S., with expected revenue of $ 2.2 billion in 2011.
By comparison, Google, the world's most accessed site, you must have a total revenue of $ 1.15 billion, according to the report
